An analysis of united states foreign policy on war

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An analysis of united states foreign policy on war

Toggle display of website navigation Argument: September 4,4: When the next history of the Balkans is written, these two statements will prove to be the most consequential by any U. A calamitous, decadelong series of conflicts in the region—all almost wholly avoidable—was the result.

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Building on rumors about private talks between the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo to swap territory as a means of ending their standoff, and hints of a change in U.

In fairness to Bolton, territorial exchange has an alluring logic: So, if the parties can agree on territorial exchange as a way of unblocking their standoff, why should the United States or Europe stand in the way? The answer is that the logic of a deal between Serbia and Kosovo—if it could be accomplished and the obstacles are more complex than realized —cannot be contained.

Heavily influenced by Turkey and other dubious Middle East actors, the post-division Bosnia might or might not remain secular.

An analysis of united states foreign policy on war

Mere discussion of territorial exchange by the likes of Bolton and senior European officials is enough to tantalize Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, who has long spoken of—and taken preliminary steps toward—secession. The resort to territorial solutions is, however, simply a precursor to renewed fighting.

In short, the seductive logic of territorial swaps over Kosovo inexorably morphs into the logic of war when applied to Bosnia. The same is true in Macedonia, with an additional international complication.

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Albanians of Macedonia are intimately connected to their kin in Kosovo; indeed, for many Albanians, the international border is nonexistent. Why would restive Albanians of Macedonia wish to remain outside the Greater Albania fold and, instead, remain locked in a chilly relationship as a permanently designated minority?

As in Bosnia, dividing Macedonia is also a complex, destabilizing affair. The emergence of a rump Macedonian state would immediately open up competition among Bulgaria, Greece, and Serbia for the spoils—reviving the Second Balkan War of a century ago. Without the promise of recovering the Serb-controlled territory in the north, the entire basis for these special minority protections, imposed by the international community, would disappear.

In other words, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic faces serious dilemmas in executing a territorial swap with his counterpart in Kosovo, Hashim Thaci—and not only in Kosovo itself. A substantial portion of the population in South Serbia is ethnically Serb, including a majority of Medveda municipality, which presumably would be included in a swap.

Trading away the highway to Kosovo would mean the loss to Serbia of its southern access to the sea, through Macedonia and Greece. Building an alternative route would be prohibitively expensive. On the other hand, if Thaci allows Vucic to keep the highway, he risks being pilloried by his opposition.

The three northern municipalities that Serbia covets contain the strategic Trepca mine. Unlike Vucic, who towers over his rivals, Thaci has a far more tenuous political standing. The fact that Belgrade and Pristina are even talking about territorial swaps is, itself, recognition that the time to cut a deal is nigh.

Appointing an EU special envoy for Kosovo and Serbia with whom Washington would collaborate would send an important signal. If the parties nonetheless insist on making territorial exchange the centerpiece of their negotiations, then the United States and Germany can work together contain the consequences.

The West cannot afford to allow a reckless deal on Kosovo to destabilize the country that saw the bloodiest fighting. Third, there must be extraordinary arrangements for new EU entrants, like Serbia, that prevent it from impeding the entry of any other state in the region.

It is imperative that Belgrade not be in a position to renege on pledges to Kosovo, which will not be in a position to join the EU for many years. But if leaders pursue territorial separation as a way of overcoming conflict, they must do so in a way that will not create even more problems.Out of its hatred of Trump the left has united with the forces of evil and war that are leading to conflict with Russia.

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